From History to Headlights

Mark Liner
Oct 27
3 min read

Last week, I had the privilege of presenting at the Access All Areas Conference at Melbourne’s iconic Esplanade Hotel. My session – From History to Headlights: CFO Tools for Forward-Looking Advisory – was about helping business owners move beyond the rear-view mirror and start steering their business with confidence.

And in what was both flattering and humbling, Tim Bilton FCA from Fathom shared a post on LinkedIn inspired by my talk. He summed it up beautifully:

“Want to give your clients certainty in uncertain times? It starts with structured financial forecasting.”

He went on to outline the four pillars I discussed that turn management reporting from reactive to proactive:

Strong Systems and Processes – Get the integrations, reconciliations, and mapping right.
Know Your Profit Drivers – Segment income, allocate costs, and actually talk about what the numbers are telling you.
Budget Like You Mean It – A forecast without a budget is like a GPS without a destination.
Embrace Rolling Forecasts – Static plans don’t work in a world that changes weekly.

Frankly, Tim nailed it and framed it so well.

Expanding the Conversation: What I Covered at Access All Areas

Tim’s summary hit the highlights, but there’s more depth behind those pillars that’s worth unpacking.

1. Systems and Processes – The Unsexy Hero of Forecasting

Clean data is the foundation of every good forecast. Without it, you’re building castles on quicksand. It’s not glamorous work, but it’s what separates confident forecasting from guesswork.

That means:

Monthly balance sheet reconciliations.
Integrated systems (Xero, Shopify, inventory, POS, etc.).
Allocations done correctly between profit centres.

When the numbers have integrity, everything else becomes easier. Clean data saves hours each month – and makes your forecast model something you can actually rely on.

2. Profit Centres – Where the Insights Live

Most SMEs treat their P&L as one big blob of numbers. But when you break it down into profit centres, you start seeing what’s really driving performance.

The secret is:

Compare each division’s results to budget and last year.
Highlight variances in both dollar and percentage terms.
Use dashboards and KPIs to drive meaningful discussion.

Numbers aren’t the end of the conversation – they’re the start of one.

3. Budgets – The Non-Negotiable

You cannot forecast without a well-constructed budget. It’s non-negotiable.

Budgets reveal the cash flow drivers of your business and make your forecasts credible. They show how the timing of profit impacts cash and allow you to test different scenarios.

Every business owner should know:

How profit timing impacts cash flow.
What happens if sales dip or costs rise.
Whether the current finance facilities are enough to handle it.

4. Rolling Forecasts – The Real Game Changer

A great forecast doesn’t sit in a drawer gathering dust. It’s a living document, updated monthly with actuals.

The best forecasts are:

Three-way integrated – P&L, Balance Sheet, and Cash Flow.
Dynamic – updated regularly so they reflect reality, not last quarter’s guess.
Scenario-ready – built to handle “what if” questions before they become crises.

I’ve seen businesses transform when they embrace rolling forecasts. One client – a $45 million importer – went from reactive stress to calm confidence because they could finally see what was coming next. They stopped losing sleep over cash flow and started making clear, strategic decisions.

The CFO Rhythm: How to Keep Your Business Future-Focused

You don’t need a full-time CFO to gain foresight. You just need rhythm:

Systems in order.
A consistent reporting pack.
A monthly finance meeting.
A rolling forecast that updates with reality.

That rhythm keeps you future-focused and enables confident decision-making. It’s not rocket science – just discipline.

Final Word

If your business is still reporting on what happened, it’s time to focus on what’s about to happen.

Forecasting isn’t a luxury or an academic exercise. It’s the foundation of confident leadership. When you trust your numbers, you make better decisions. It’s that simple.

If this resonates, explore more at cfoconsultant.com.au or get in touch to see how structured forecasting can help your business build confidence and clarity about the future.